Illinois Chicago

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	236.0
Current RPI:	236
Expected SOS:	302
Current SOS:	302
Current Record:	15-15
Expected Record:	15-15
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-4
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	321
Expected OOC SOS:	269

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-15	236.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	North Carolina Central (279.0)	MEAC	H	65-55	W	100%
11-13	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	H	82-86	L	0%
11-16	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	H	95-55	W	100%
11-18	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	H	51-67	L	0%
11-26	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	A	107-73	L	0%
11-29	Troy (194.0)	SB	A	87-66	L	0%
12-2	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	A	85-61	L	0%
12-9	DePaul (186.0)	BE	H	55-65	L	0%
12-15	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	76-60	W	100%
12-19	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	A	71-70	L	0%
12-21	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	A	69-63	L	0%
12-28	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	65-61	L	0%
12-30	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	A	86-51	L	0%
1-4	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	A	65-70	W	100%
1-10	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	H	84-73	W	100%
1-12	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	H	88-73	W	100%
1-15	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	H	68-78	L	0%
1-18	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	A	78-92	W	100%
1-20	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	A	80-87	W	100%
1-27	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	71-62	W	100%
1-29	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	56-74	W	100%
2-2	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	73-79	W	100%
2-4	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	A	69-78	W	100%
2-8	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	H	100-75	W	100%
2-10	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	78-86	L	0%
2-16	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	A	75-83	W	100%
2-19	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	H	94-87	W	100%
2-23	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	H	72-79	L	0%
2-25	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	H	81-88	L	0%
3-4	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	N	75-80	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Illinois Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Illinois Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Illinois Chicago	Horz	26.41	26.41	49.32	49.32	-0.36	-0.36
Milwaukee	Horz	5.98	5.98	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.48	4.48	31.25	31.25	-1.68	-1.68
Wright St.	Horz	4.47	4.47	70.00	70.00	1.79	1.79
Oakland	Horz	4.40	4.40	58.06	58.06	0.71	0.71
Green Bay	Horz	4.39	4.39	35.71	35.71	-1.25	-1.25
Detroit	Horz	4.34	4.34	21.43	21.43	-2.48	-2.48
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.33	4.33	21.43	21.43	-2.47	-2.47
Northern Kentucky	Horz	4.30	4.30	66.67	66.67	1.43	1.43
IUPUI	Horz	4.30	4.30	34.62	34.62	-1.32	-1.32
Loyola Chicago	MVC	1.88	1.88	83.87	83.87	1.27	1.27
Fort Wayne	Sum	1.83	1.83	48.15	48.15	-0.07	-0.07
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.80	1.80	6.90	6.90	-1.56	-1.56
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.80	1.80	34.48	34.48	-0.56	-0.56
DePaul	BE	1.75	1.75	33.33	33.33	-0.58	-0.58
Illinois St.	MVC	1.74	1.74	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Kentucky	SEC	1.72	1.72	69.70	69.70	0.68	0.68
North Carolina Central	MEAC	1.72	1.72	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Troy	SB	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.67	1.67	24.00	24.00	-0.87	-0.87
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.67	1.67	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.29	0.29	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.29	0.29	66.67	66.67	0.10	0.10
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.28	0.28	71.88	71.88	0.12	0.12
Kent St.	MAC	0.24	0.24	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Bradley	MVC	0.19	0.19	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.16	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.15	0.15	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.14	0.14	24.24	24.24	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin	B10	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	82.76	82.76	0.09	0.09
Jacksonville	ASun	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	15.62	15.62	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.13	0.13	87.88	87.88	0.10	0.10
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Ball St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Butler	BE	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
George Mason	A10	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
UMBC	AE	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.07	-0.07
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01